UBS analysts outline a potential new trade war timeline for 2025, divided into phases: the "tweet phase," already in progress; the "imposition phase," starting in Q1 2025 with tariff preparations; and the "impact phase," beginning in Q2, where businesses may stockpile to counter disruptions. Ongoing negotiations are expected, with global market responses significantly influencing the conflict's trajectory. Emerging market currencies, particularly the yuan, may face volatility, and extensive tariffs could risk stagflation, although moderate inflation is anticipated.
